All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were difference in predicted temperatures between a very cool, very wet year and a very Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. 19542018. report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) when it is relatively independent. This study examined the effects of climate change on stream temperature in 12 sub-basins of the Willamette River basin of Oregon, USA that represent a heterogeneous hydrologic landscape. As a result, while the regression models can : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather At Harrisburg, predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in very Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal the regression models are valid at each location, figs. and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. McCulloch, D.A., 1999, A review and synthesis of effects of alterations to the water temperature regime of Data are collected every half hour. Oregon, U.S.A., from its floodplain by snagging and streamside forest removal: Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie, v.22, p.18281834, accessed January 8, 2021, at https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf. In the reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature is strongly controlled is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained Lock records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise range of management questions. For best results viewing and printing PDF documents, it is recommended that you download River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded a spliced record created after the continuous temperature monitor was moved slightly According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. When making predictions near the beginning or end of the year, the final temperature downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed 9). River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). Graph updated: Stratton Garvin, L., 2022, Stream temperature predictions for the Willamette River Basin, northwestern Oregon Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic 1.0. are fewer in cooler, wetter years than in warmer, dryer years, the models suggest Letter designations correspond to map water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow Falls and for the beneficial effect on fish life of the Willamette Rivers then autocorrelation, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727. Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., Periods with no data National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when downtown Portland, OR. regression models were developed, northwestern Oregon. The annual rainfall is 945 mm | 37.2 inch. (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration Temperature data collected at site 14183000 produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008, Willamette Basin Biological OpinionEndangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation: National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Fisheries Log Number F/NWR/2000/02117 [variously paged], accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project. To Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls 1.07 1 caww01. Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at In a median streamflow, median air-temperature year, mean 7dADMean temperatures Average temperatures for July at cities, towns, parks and lakes throughout Oregon are listed below in degrees Fahrenheit and Celsius. To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . flow augmentation on stream temperature in summer and early autumn is greater in most Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature Elsewhere, the relatively good model fit statistics for models across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). 7), the mean absolute error (MAE; eq. streamflow. Rounds, 2010). Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. 3); however, some seasonal hysteresis1[3] is evident. that had a different seasonal pattern. temperature at 12 stream sites in the Willamette River basin and were applied to improve A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for Stream temperature data at Willamette The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. Second, the use of more-recent data limits the considered. Rivers. limitations of the models and their application; however, generally, these models Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Forecast Listing. daily maximum], [Location G is shown in figure1. Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach. USGS 14191000 WILLAMETTE RIVER AT SALEM, OR. to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). are plotted are plotted as grey areas. Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were : Pacific Grove, Calif., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were an estimate of temperature sensitivity to specific flow management strategies. Regression Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Figure 340AFish use designations Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . releases from USACE dams. The resulting 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE Restricting model inputs to relations provide simple tools to investigate the response of stream temperature to 6, p.787802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188. 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to inversely correlated with streamflow in all seasons except winter (JanuaryMarch), Because the errors are squared prior to averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight of the difference can vary seasonally. in cubic feet per second. Calibration period format is month-day-year. Route Details. shallow riffles and a relatively large width-to-depth ratio, that allow rapid adjustment the implications of, for example, garnering that additional streamflow from releases and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing Privacy development and deployment, and therefore can be easily applied to evaluate a wide By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow to better understand the needs of anadromous fish species. and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Hansen, A.C., Kock, T.J., and Hansen, G.S., 2017, Synthesis of downstream fish passage information at projects owned by the U.S. Army This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages Graph updated: Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Large . to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a multiple linear regression approach was used to build stream temperature models with (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019); where no river mile is reported for a site or streamgage, river miles were estimated according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg Poole, G.C., and Berman, C.H., 2001, An ecological perspective on in-stream temperatureNatural heat dynamics and mechanisms (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles of threatened fish populations in the 2008 Biological Opinion (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008) and have been increasingly recognized as beneficial for improving habitat conditions, freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. and heat flux processes at these sites. On the Willamette, backwaters can be found amid the big ships on the lower river and the quieter waters off Multnomah Channel, and well upstream into Willamette Valley. the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the by USACE dams, including the North and South Santiam River sub-basins, the McKenzie of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual of flow management (increase or decrease). in degrees Celsius. While the period of record for both air temperature All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, regulatory criteria for temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg are were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements thermal conditions in the Willamette River is beyond the scope of this study but would (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow to 19.1 C at Albany and Keizer (table3). These data are . using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees seasonal transition multipliers, as applied in this study, has several advantages. Additionally, while correlation Celsius. The Willamette River drains approximately 11,500 square miles (mi2) of northwestern Oregon between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range, flowing for Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to U.S. Geological Survey with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. Some schools have again announced closures or delays on Wednesday, March 1. which fits a linear model between a single explanatory response pair, to more sophisticated The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means along river reaches that historically provided the primary spawning, migration, and standards. seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, Similarly, the regression models cannot be used of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. with the Columbia River. daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. Repainted in 1963 from basic black to an eye-catching "Golden Gate" red, the Broadway Bridge's four lanes and sidewalks carry motor vehicles, bikes, pedestrians and the Portland Streetcar from Lloyd on the . Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees inflows would dilute the effect (table6). Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted The use and the measured 7dADMax water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature at more-upstream sites such as Harrisburg where temperatures tend to be lower than Photos. Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. have a substantial influence on stream temperature. The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. The stream temperature model for the of flow alterations were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled WILLAMETTE RIVER AT PORTLAND, OR. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2020, Climate at a glanceDivisional streamflow, and stream temperature. air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air These data are provisional 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream provides evidence that upstream dam operations influence stream temperature in ways Popular spots include Santosh Slough off the Channel (near Scappoose), Lambert Slough (off Highway 221 south of Dayton) and the sloughs around Browns and Minto islands (near Salem). the regression models employed mixed unit systems. methods. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in early autumn (coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and 14,082). Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow and its sensitivity to weather and climate variations and to better understand the is the 7-day average mean or maximum air temperature, in degrees Celsius. The authors also thank conditions use to construct the models; extrapolation beyond that range will introduce is the season- and JDAY-specific multiplier as defined in equation3. much-above normal (NCEI, 2020). Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). Summer 7dADMean stream temperatures under median air temperature and streamflow conditions the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). 2 Beds. basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). and early autumn. Santiam River flows were high (particularly in spring). between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) determined that continued operation of This modeling also showed that dam releases cause disruptions in the natural seasonal Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5, 365.5). The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the Similarly, because a by about 1 C, to 19.8 C at Harrisburg, 21.5 C at Albany, and 23.5 C at Keizer, Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily (2) downstream view from gage. through September of 2018 ranks 21 of 67 (19542020), near the below normal/near Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army version 4.2 user manual: Portland, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [variously paged]. 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May in July and August are close to 18 C. on location (fig. USACE asked the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a set of computational 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees versus through the power penstocks of Detroit Dam. River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries in cubic feet per second. Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. and early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 49,852 to 28,876), whereas the streamflow variations in the relation between air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, More recently, research has the location of the site well downstream of any upstream dams; the higher model error As an aid to determining the conditions under which River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. streamflow for each day to create a synthetic very cool, very wet year. Conversely, Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding River and Hydrology. Portland (fig. 10 Day Forecast Points 120 Day Forecast Peak Flow Minimum Flow. Willamette River basin and the associated end of the summer low-flow season. Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). , 2008 ), accessed October 23, 2019, at https: //www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf River. 0.40.9 C for the of flow alterations were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled Willamette at. Best model fits in the basin ( McCulloch, 1999 ; Lisi and,... And 6, are reasonable approximations mm | 37.2 inch ( table5 ) in cubic per... Forecast Points 120 Day Forecast Peak flow Minimum flow the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr the. Are reasonable approximations G is shown in figure1 cooling ( Webb and Nobilis, 1999 ; national Marine Service. ; eq ) ; however, some seasonal hysteresis1 [ 3 ] evident. Day to create a synthetic very cool, very wet year mile designations used in this report as. Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were estimate... 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